The Presidential Debate: Dial Groups Among The Deciders
PSG Consulting, in conjunction with Democracy Corps, sponsored and designed a unique research effort to understand voter reactions to the first 2024 presidential debate between President Biden and Donald Trump.
What made this project so valuable is that it focused on the “deciders.” Among the 374 participants, special attention was given to double negatives, also known as dual haters, third-party voters and white unmarried women. Additional key base groups included Black voters, Hispanic voters and white millennial/Gen Z voters. These groups will determine the next occupant of the White House, as well as majorities in the House and Senate, state legislatures, governorships and other elected officials up and down the ballot.
A survey was administered to participants before and after the debate. After completing the first survey, participants watched the debate and adjusted their dials up or down based on their reactions to statements by President Biden or Donald Trump. The follow-up survey included some of the same questions as the pre-debate survey, along with important open-ended responses with AI-generated analysis.
Overall, 54 percent of respondents said President Biden won the debate. He maintained steady support among white unmarried women, who showed strong resistance to another Trump term.
The dial groups revealed that President Biden’s vote margin decreases from his initial standing in the pre-survey by 8 points when all candidates are included on the ballot. The most significant losses came from third-party, Black and Hispanic voters.
The data underscores the importance of targeting double negative voters. There is a significant shift among double negatives when going from a vote choice with all candidates to one with only two. Biden loses one point in the post-debate survey with all candidate choices, but 14 points when it is a forced choice between President Biden and Donald Trump. The President is still on the plus side of the vote, just by a smaller margin.
White unmarried women are an important target as they moved the least in their support. They need to be a primary target of the Biden campaign to bolster their numbers and ensure turnout.
Both double negatives and unmarried women hold the key to a 2024 victory for President Biden and other candidates up and down the ticket. PSG Consulting, working with TargetSmart has developed models to target these voters. The importance of understanding and designing targeted efforts to reach these voters cannot be overstated.
Page S. Gardner of PSG Consulting is a senior political and communications strategist who founded the Voter Participation Center and the Center for Voter Information and has recently launched Innovating for the Public Good: R&D for Democracy, an ongoing incubator dedicated to sourcing innovative ideas, leveraging emerging technologies and developing long-term solutions to restore trust in public institutions and democracy.