Another Look
I wanted to share a guest column from Frank Smith, a seasoned strategist and observer of the American political landscape as well as a respected advisor to the top democratic donors.
His guest columns usually appear in the “Need To Know” newsletters:
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Chaos and spectacle are the coin of the realm in the Trump regime. Whether it is Trump’s inflammatory posts and wild pronouncements or the antics of his unqualified Cabinet — like RFK Jr, Kash Patel or Pete Hegseth — there is something bizarre or profoundly stupid that occurs and makes news every day. The breaking news of crazy and corrupt never stops. The Administration operates in a fact-free zone where narrative control trumps the truth. This spectacle provides cover for the ideologues to implement Project 2025 and the rest of the right-wing agenda.
Social media was very good to Donald Trump during his first Presidential run. Trump is foremost a creature of television and follows the maxim of veteran newsman Daniel Schorr: “If you are not on TV, you do not exist.” This is the social media era, however, and Trump very effectively used Twitter in his first term. Now when he picks up the phone, the rants of the old man at the end of the bar are the result. What he seemingly cares about most is his grotesque ballroom.
Trump’s disastrous war in Iran has him threatening war crimes and ending with an insane post on Easter with “praise be to Allah.” Then he attacked the Pope as “weak on crime and nuclear” for upholding Catholic “just war” theory. Next, he posted an AI-generated picture of himself as Jesus Christ healing the sick. His evangelical base was not pleased, so he claimed this was just a post of him as a doctor, which led to widespread ridicule. Twenty percent of Americans are Catholic, though many cradle Catholics are infrequent Church attendees after the sexual abuse scandals. But attacking the Pope like he is a congressman is a bridge too far, particularly since he is an American. It has started to splinter his electoral coalition.
Trump’s war in Iran and potential agreement will probably look a good deal like Obama’s one that he tore up. His major negotiators are two real estate guys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, along with all their conflicts of interest. Diplomatic expertise is no longer in vogue. As Trump’s Fox News weekend host turned DOD chief, Pete Hegseth, said, “We negotiate with bombs.” Hegseth then gave a speech quoting a fake Bible verse used in the movie Pulp Fiction. You can’t make this up.
The militant regime in Iran is just as entrenched. Our economy will take a hit, and the number of new jobs since the Trump regime resumed office is abysmal. New college graduates are having a difficult time finding employment, even before the full effect of the AI transformation occurs. Trump’s approval rating on the economy sits at 34% in the recent New York Times poll.
JD Vance continues to demonstrate his political magic touch. Trump sent him to campaign for Hungarian strongman Victor Orban on the eve of Orban’s landslide loss. After this political belly flop, Vance attended a sparsely attended Turning Point conference. A Catholic convert in 2019, Vance lectured the Pope to be “careful” in matters of theology and doctrine, and that his words must be “anchored in truth.” Apparently, the Pope, who holds a doctorate on the subject, is wrong and needs to do his theological homework. Vance is a brazen piece of work.
The Trump regime will never lose its base of Fox News diehards. But they have dug themselves into a considerable hole of public disapproval. The full weight of gas prices, an unpopular war with a slowing economy, and Trump’s online tirades and blatant corruption reflect his approval numbers in the 30s. Maybe this will cause the Democrats to up the pressure on the GOP, and they can start by uniformly opposing the budget and the absurd $200 billion in extra money for the Pentagon.
Senate
In Alaska, Mary Peltola raised $9 million in her first quarter. She is running on very local issues, particularly the fate of the fishing industry. Her opponent has a long history in GOP politics, but has become just another Trump supporter in the Senate. James Talarico raised an astonishing $27 million in the first three months of 2026 for his Texas Senate bid. Meanwhile, the Republicans are in a bitter runoff, and Trump has withheld his endorsement after one poll showed the ultra MAGA AG Ken Paxton leading the incumbent John Cornyn. Texas may be fool’s gold, but it will force the GOP to spend heavily there. Roy Cooper, Jon Ossoff and Sherrod Brown all posted healthy first-quarter numbers for their respective races.
Unfortunately, the GOP Super PACs are flush with money. Casino mogul Miriam Adelson gave $40 million to the GOP House and Senate Super PACs. The Senate organization has $109 million to $75 million for the Democrats. Trump’s Super PAC has $300 million in cash, though who knows how that will be spent, since Trump only cares about his personal survival. The no-regulation team for AI and sports betting industries are firmly in the GOP camp. The DNC will be of little help, with under $16 million in cash to the RNC’s $109 million. The New York Times reports that official GOP Committees and allied organizations have a $600 million advantage over the Democratic ones.
There will be, as usual, an endless funnel of negative ads against Democrats on crime, immigration and cultural issues like trans people. Fortunately, there is evidence that some of these negative attacks from generically named groups have less impact. Witness the recent advertising in the Illinois Democratic primary by the pro-crypto groups and AIPAC.
Flipping the Senate requires a Democrat to win at least two of the four states that Trump won by double digits. More Democratic candidates need to follow the lead of Senator Jon Ossoff and link the ongoing financial corruption of Donald Trump and his cronies and how it affects the daily life of all Americans.
House
John Roberts has realized his lifelong dream. Since he was a young lawyer in the Reagan Administration, one of his goals has been to dismantle the Voting Rights Act. Now, with the 6-to-3 decision in a case Louisiana brought, the law is effectively over. Activists died to make this law a reality, and with such a momentous decision, one would think Roberts would wait until the end of session. But the GOP court wanted to save the GOP House, so the decision was released to give Louisiana and other states like Tennessee the ability to redistrict the formerly VRA-protected seats ahead of the midterms.
Virginia voters followed the example of California and voted to allow mid-decade redistricting by the legislature. It might allow Democrats to pick up as many as four seats, but it is under court challenge. Only Florida is left as a potential redistricting, and the Republicans already have 20 of the 28 seats. The map proposed by Governor DeSantis will try to carve out four more seats. Florida law prevents lawmakers from deliberately creating districts to create a partisan advantage, but the Florida Supreme Court has been known to be “flexible” to help the GOP. The net effect of all this redistricting started by Texas this year would have been a wash. Trump has demanded all the GOP states affected by the VRA decision to redistrict now.
The generic poll should be higher than high single digits in favor of Democrats, but it reflects the ongoing unpopularity of the Party. Still, individual Democrats continue to outperform the 2024 election numbers. In the New Jersey special to replace Governor Mikie Sherrill, Democrat Analilia Mejia received over 70% of the vote in a suburban New Jersey district. All signs point to double-digit pickups, but this depends on the final redistricting, now that the VRA is a “dead letter.” Trump’s approval numbers will likely stay in the 30s until this war is over and there is some relief from the gas prices and the general affordability crisis.